Trump-Aligned Election-Denier PA Congressman Scott Perry May Get Dethroned

Congressman Scott Perry with Freedom Caucus confederates Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert looking on. Source: ABC News

Demographic changes to Perry’s congressional district make his 2024 reelection bid against a newcomer Democrat a close race.

Prologue

In the Pennsylvania primary election last Tuesday, Janelle Stelson, a news anchor at the region’s top-rated television station, won the right to face incumbent Scott Perry in the commonwealth’s 10th congressional district.

Stelson tallied 43.5% of the vote, 20 points better than her nearest challenger, Marine Corps veteran Mike O’Brien. Placing a distant third was Sharmaine Daniels, who faced Perry in the 2022 general election and lost to the Republican by a margin of 54-46. The reconstituted 10th district is home to the state capital, Harrisburg.

Election-Denier Perry

Political newcomer Stelson will have her hands full in facing Perry, a congressman since 2012. Perry was routinely reelected by 30 points or more until 2018, when the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down Pennsylvania’s congressional district map as an illegal partisan gerrymander. Perry ended up in the competitive 10th district where his margins of victory have dwindled to single digits (more about this soon).

Scott Perry is well known for his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. He made the baseless wacky claim that a rogue CIA official conspired with the Italian government to use “military satellites” to flip votes to Joe Biden. On January 6, Perry introduced a resolution objecting to the counting of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes (thus disenfranchising voters in his district).

Scott Perry at a “Stop the Steal” rally days after the 2020 election. Photo by Gabriela Bhastar/NY Times

In August 2022 a federal judge ordered the FBI to seize Perry’s cell phone as part of an investigation into his alleged interference with the election certification. As a result, Perry has had to divert  $327,000 in political contributions to pay for legal fees.

Perry was among 21 House Republicans to vote against a bill to award the Congressional Gold Medal to Capitol police officers who defended Perry’s own congressional colleagues during the January 6 insurrection.

Democratic Party spokesperson Aidan Johnson: “For the first time in his political career, all eyes are on Scott Perry as it’s become increasingly clear how deeply involved he was to overturn the 2020 election. Pennsylvanians now know just how far Perry will go to keep political power and that he can’t be trusted to protect their fundamental freedoms.”

PA-10

Perry’s seat is definitely creeping into the swing district category.

—James Lee, Harrisburg-based pollster

Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district. Source: Ballotpedia

Perry’s 10th district has acquired a purplish tone in recent years. For example:

• For the first time in over 100 years, the county commission of Dauphin County, of which Harrisburg is the county seat, will be controlled by Democrats by a 2-1 majority;
• In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Democrat Josh Shapiro carried the 10th by 12 points on his way to a statewide victory (though against a weak Republican candidate);
• The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted PA-10 from “Likely Republican” to Lean Republican;”

Harrisburg’s recent population growth has been powered by prosperous white-collar suburbanites working in state government, area colleges, and medical facilities. This “Eds and Meds” phenomenon has long been associated with increased Democratic Party affiliation.

Janelle Stelson. Source: WGAL-TV.

The Race

The Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC has reportedly socked away $2.4 million to purchase ads in the tiny Harrisburg media market for the final stretch of the election after spending not one penny there in 2022. Their optimism is fueled in part by the failed electoral track records of unabashedly MAGA candidates running into a buzzsaw of voter diversity.

Perry’s far-right brand might have played well in his old, mostly rural district. Still, it might be too extreme for suburban families who favor normalcy and predictability over chaos and belligerence.

Moderation

Janelle Stelson believes she can pick off some moderate Republicans in a district where voter registration favors the GOP by a margin of 45-38. Perhaps it’s because Stelson was a registered Republican who changed parties before launching her campaign. Nonetheless, Stelson shares Democratic priorities like reproductive rights, raising the minimum wage, and supporting public education.

Born in Fairbanks, Alaska, Stelson was raised in Washington state before landing in central Pennsylvania in 1986 to accept the broadcasting job at WGAL. As news anchor, Stelson moderated two debates between Scott Perry and past Democratic foes.

A Trusted Friend

Stelson might be a first-time candidate, but her day job at top-rated WGAL has made her a familiar face in the 10th district, perhaps as well-known as Perry’s. And then there’s  the “Walter Cronkite Effect,” as articulated by former Gov. Ed Rendell: “A person like Janelle, who people have been watching from their living room for so many years–she becomes like a trusted friend.”